Your Turn, John McCain

"All hurricanes are acts of God, because God controls the heavens. I believe that New Orleans had a level of sin that was offensive to God, and they were recipients of the judgment of God for that.

The newspaper carried the story in our local area, that was not carried nationally, that there was to be a homosexual parade there on the Monday that the Katrina came. And the promise of that parade was that it would was going to reach a level of sexuality never demonstrated before in any of the other gay pride parades.

So I believe that the judgment of God is a very real thing."

- Rev. John Hagee, blaming Hurricane Katrina on God's damnation of New Orleans, for holding a gay pride parade

"I would warn Orlando that you're right in the way of some serious hurricanes, and I don't think I'd be waving those flags in God's face if I were you, This is not a message of hate -- this is a message of redemption. But a condition like this will bring about the destruction of your nation. It'll bring about terrorist bombs; it'll bring earthquakes, tornadoes, and possibly a meteor."

–Pat Robertson, on "gay days" at Disneyworld

"I'd like to say to the good citizens of Dover: If there is a disaster in your area, don't turn to God, you just rejected him from your city. And don't wonder why he hasn't helped you when problems begin, if they begin. I'm not saying they will, but if they do, just remember, you just voted God out of your city. And if that's the case, don't ask for his help because he might not be there."

--Pat Robertson, after the city of Dover, Pennsylvania voted to boot the current school board, which instituted an intelligent design policy that led to a federal trial

And perhaps most pointedly, in the wake of September 11th, Pat Robertson said this:

"Well, I totally concur."

–Pat Robertson to Jerry Falwell following the Sept. 11 attacks...

...after Falwell said this:

"I really believe that the pagans, and the abortionists, and the feminists, and the gays and the lesbians who are actively trying to make that an alternative lifestyle, the ACLU, People For the American Way -- all of them who have tried to secularize America -- I point the finger in their face and say: 'You helped this happen.'"

Finally, A National Poll That DOES Matter

It amazes me how often t.v. pundits and newspapers report national head-to-head polls, especially this far out. Give t.v. pundits credit for usually reporting that these national polls are irrelevant, largely because they ignore the electoral math.

Finally, a state-by-state poll by a reputable firm that DOES matter, atleast as far as polls eight months out matter.

The lede:

SurveyUSA's 30,000 sample poll (600 voters per state) gives a slight edge to Obama at first glance, and a big electability edge upon further analysis.

It shows Obama beating McCain, 280 - 258, while Clinton beats McCain, 276-262.

Both match-ups show Democrats winning California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Wisconsin and the District of Columbia, for a total of 202 electoral votes.

How they add to those totals is very interesting. Clinton adds Arkansas, Florida, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, for a total of 74 more. Winning the big states, as she says.

Obama adds Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska (split), Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oregon, Virginia, and Washington, for a total of 78 more. Doing better in smaller Midwestern states and Western states.

What's MOST interesting about these results for Obama is that Florida (-2 points), New Jersey (virtually tied) and Pennsylvania (-5) are states that Obama hasn't campaigned in. Yet. Head-to-heads also show Obama down only 2 points in North Carolina, another state where he hasn't campaigned.

To be fair, Clinton is competitive in Michigan (virtually tied) and Washington (-2), but much less so in Colorado (-6), Iowa (-5) and Oregon (-5), and don't expect her to compete at all in Nebraska (-27), Nevada (-8), New Hampshire (-8), North Dakota (-19) or Virginia (-10).

Aside from Florida (and Arkansas for Clinton), neither candidate really competes in the South. Which makes the whole "Will the South elect a black President?" question the Clinton's hint at moot.

What is interesting is that Obama does significantly better in Western states and the Midwest, where the other big question, "Do voters want the Clinton's back in the White House?" looms apparent.

(Note: I've been staying away from Clinton-Obama stories, but I thought this might be a good story on poll analysis. Feel free to disagree with me, but before anyone who doesn't like what they read lashes out at thepollster or their methodology, SurveyUSA was only 1 point off on the Foster-Oberweis race, and out of 26 presidential primaries they've polled so far, they've had a median error of +/- 2.0 points). Compared to 5.0 for Zogby (17 polls) and 7.0 for Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon. These guys are to national polling what Dave Fako is to Illinois. No offense, Dave, I know you do business elsewhere)

Irony is a bitter pill

John McCain has based his entire campaign for the White House on his honor, character and personal integrity.

He's accused Barack Obama of running a campaign based on empty rhetoric and platitudes.

Am I the only one who sees the irony here?

If John McCain was being accused of having a romantic relationship with a waitress, this would blow over.

But his own former staff alleges he was having a romantic relationship with a lobbyist whose clients were regulated by the Senate Committee he chaired.

The FCC has documented that he intervened with federal regulators on her client's behalf. If this was a constituent in his home state of Arizona, that would be one thing. But this was in Pittsburgh.

And it just so happens that client donated tens of thousands of dollars to his campaign.

Pundits offer various opinions, but I don't think this one is going away in the minds of voters. For one thing, Republican voters demonstrated in 2006 that they're just not going to tolerate this anymore. I also think that the mood of the entire country has shifted, and voters on whole take notice of this kind of thing. That's why Obama's campaign to "turn the page" has such strong appeal.

Grand Old Partisan: Setting the Obama Record Straight

Earlier this week, Grand Old Partisan issued what I'm sure is to be a continued party of the Clinton-McCain attacks on Barack Obama: "Where's the beef?"

GOP charged that Obama was all talk, no action on education, health care, transportation and government reform.

Before I respond, let me offer a counter challenge to GOP: What have Hillary Clinton and John McCain ACCOMPLISHED to improve education, health care, transportation and government ethics?

OBAMA ON EDUCATION:

- SB 19 (LAW) enacted school reforms backed by Mayor Daley

- SB 533 (law) expanded teacher training;

- SB 903 (LAW) expanded early childhood education;

- SB 1369 (LAW) created Illinois' first statewide capital needs assessment for schools;

ON HEALTH CARE:

- HB 2268 (LAW) Created the Health Care Justice Act, creating a bipartisan committee of experts to develop a universal health care plan for Illinois;

- SB 59 (LAW) created safety report cards for hospitals;

- SB 130 (LAW) Extended the children's health insurance program;

- SB 263 (LAW) HIV counselling and testing for pregnant women;

- SB 989 (LAW) expand health coverage for the developmentally disabled;

- SB 1417 (LAW) require insurance companies to cover colorectal cancer;

- SB 1418 (LAW) banned the sale of diet pill ephedra, linked to deaths in IL;

- HB 6 (LAW) expanded disaster preparedness programs to include hospitals and first responders;

ON TRANSPORTATION

- SB 1408 (LAW) Bipartisan measure to expand tranportation programs in Illinois;

- SB 46 (LAW) Extended tax credits for bio-fuels;

ON GOVERNMENT REFORM:

- SB 15 (LAW) Required videotaping of homocide interrogations;

- SB 30 (LAW) Cracked down on racial profiling by police;

- SB 1586 (LAW) Strengthened IL Open Meetings Act;

- SB 702 (LAW) Banned solicitation of state employees for campaign contributions, created the IL Inspector General's Office, and made other sweeping changes;

- SB 706 (LAW) Creates an Inspector General's office for the IL SOS to investigate corruption;

GOP uses the same-old attacks that have always been used against advocates of campaign finance reform. George Ryan used them very effectively against Glenn Poshard.

The argument goes something like this: Barack Obama says that Hillary Clinton has raised more money from lobbyists and PACs than any candidate, Democrat or Republican. But Barack Obama used to take money from lobbyists and PACs, so if Hillary Clinton is doing something wrong now, Barack Obama must have been doing something wrong then.

Well, as a State Senator, Obama did raise $93,000 in contributions of more than $1,000. The largest was $10,000 from Gold Coast philanthropist Abby O'Neil.

But he raised $379,000 from donors giving $150 to $1,000 (77%).

Given Illinois "Wild West" campaign finance laws, that's not too shabby.

Compare that to Illinois House GOP Leader Tom Cross:

Contributions of more than $1,000: $5.5 million (66%)

Contributions of $150 to $1,000: $2.2 million (33%)

Or Tom Cross' #2 man, Brent Hassert:

More than $1000: $806,000 (45%)

$150 to $1,000: $1 million (55%)

Hillary: WELCOME to "The Solutions" Business

After having lost her voice in New Hampshire and then found it, and changing her campaign's central message about a dozen times, Hillary Clinton now claims she's in "the solutions business."

I find that a little ironic, because when it comes to public policy, Hillary Clinton is best known for two "solutions" failures: her failed health care plan from 1994 and more recently, her support for invading Iraq.

The Clintons' Presidency

In fact, the Clinton's track record on health care is pretty abysmal. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, when the Clinton's presidency began in 1993, 19.4 million Americans lacked health care coverage. By the time the Clinton presidency ended in 2000, the number of uninsured Americans had exploded to 38.7 million, nearly doubling.

On education, 1 in 4 adult Americans were functionally illiterate when the Clinton's took power, and 1 in 4 were still illiterate when they left.

On jobs, the Clinton's rammed NAFTA through Congress with the help of Republicans, costing America more than 800,000 jobs, including 25,000 jobs in Wisconsin, 45,000 jobs in Pennsylvania, 50,000 jobs in Ohio, and 72,000 jobs in Texas.

Clinton's Senate record

Clinton's record in the U.S. Senate is just as damning. On the war, she made the wrong choice, at a time when not only Barack Obama and Ted Kennedy were opposing the war, but roughly 20 million Americans. Perhaps worse, she still refuses to admit that she was wrong, continuing to blame George W. Bush and accepting no responsibility herself.

On education, Hillary Clinton supported No Child Left Behind in 2001, calling it "landmark legislation."

Overall, my chief problem is that for the past seven years, Hillary Clinton has been one of the most powerful Democrats in Washington, but she's just now getting into "the solutions business." She's had ample time to introduce and pass solutions to many of the pressing issues in this campaign. Instead, here's the most recent compilation of Hillary Clinton's legislative accomplishments I can find:

1. Establish the Kate Mullany National Historic Site
2. Support the goals and ideals of Better Hearing and Speech Month
   
3. Recognize the Ellis Island Medal of Honor
4. Name courthouse after Thurgood Marshall
5. Name courthouse after James L. Watson
6. Name post office after John A. O'Shea
7. Designate August 7, 2003, as National Purple Heart Recognition Day
   
8. Support the goals and ideals of National Purple Heart Recognition Day
   
9. Honor the life and legacy of Alexander Hamilton on the bicentennial of his death
10. Congratulate the Syracuse University Orange Men's Lacrosse Team on winning the championship.
11. Congratulate the Le Moyne College Dolphins Men's Lacrosse Team on winning the championship
12. Establish the 225th Anniversary of the American Revolution Commemorative Program
13. Name post office after Sergeant Riayan A. Tejeda
14. Honor Shirley Chisholm for her service to the nation and express condolences on her death
15. Honor John J. Downing, Brian Fahey, and Harry Ford, firefighters who lost their lives on duty.
16. Extend period of unemployment assistance to victims of 9/11
    
17. Pay for city projects in response to 9/11
18. Assist landmine victims in other countries
19. Assist family caregivers in accessing affordable respite care
20. Designate part of the National Forest System in Puerto Rico as protected in the Wilderness Preservation System

Hillary Clinton "solutions" 1-15 speak for themselves. 9/11 related measures #16 & #17 probably could have passed by themselves. That leaves Hillary Clinton having pressed for and achieved three solutions in seven years.

Again, Senator Clinton, welcome to the "solutions" business.

New Mexico: Results are In, Mixed Bag for Clinton

Results are in, and while Clinton edged out Obama by 2,000 votes, picking up one more delegate, there's good news for Obama.

According to CNN exit polls, Obama picked up 41% of the Latino vote under 60.

Clinton maintained a 70% to 28% lead among Latinos 60 and over.

Obama also won White voters overwhelmingly, scoring big among white voters under 45 AND over 60, while maintaining a slight edge among white voters 45-59.

Clinton Debate Doublespeak

It's typical Clinton doublespeak for Hillary to demand a debate in Wisconsin so that voters can find out where they stand on the issues...

...WHILE HILLARY CAMPAIGNS IN TEXAS.

Sen. Clinton, if you want voters in Wisconsin to know where you stand on the issues, try campaigning there.

You can see Obama's response to Clinton's ad here.